Completed by Assoc Prof Somboon Jarernjiratrakul, an economics lecturer at Prince of Songkla University, the paper suggests a more organised approach to overseeing plantations for sustainability in economic and environmental terms.
Rubber plantations from 2004-10 expanded three.91 percent on average every year to 17.96 million rai in 2010 from 12.95 million rai in 2004. Thailand is second only to Indonesia at 21 million rai, but is the world's largest rubber producer with three million tonnes last year versus three.83 million tonnes from Indonesia.
On the economic front, farmers are more exposed to outside factors, as rubber demand depends on economic growth, which becomes increasingly unstable in the more globalised period. There is also no guarantee that in ten years rubber demand in China - the world's fastest-growing economy - would increase 12.90 percent per year, like historicallyin the past decade.
"The plantation areas expanded largely due to cost increases, which are driven by factors - higher demand for natural rubber, speculation in futures markets and higher prices of synthetic rubber. Expanding on the outside variables subjects farmers to risks and this will also affect food security and cause environmental as well as social impacts," the researcher said.
The paper shows that in a Songkhla village, all villagers own rubber farms - 15 rai on average per household. But 80 percent of the households own pickup van.
Notably, rubber prices are driven up or down by quotations in the futures market and government policies, not purely by demand. This explains why the rubber cost rose from less than Bt30 per kilogram in 2002 to Bt200 this year.
Yet, speculation from February 21-March 14 this year drove down the rubber cost in Thailand from Bt183.64 to Bt95, much below the usual gap with the Singapore cost. But on Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban's assurance of higher prices on March 16, the cost jumped to Bt121.38 on the next day and further to Bt169 on April 7.
Last but not least, Thai farmers are not alone in the world in turning to this commercial crop. Plantations have increased sharply in China, Vietnam and the Philippines. If the global economy turns dismal again and drives down demand, oversupply is likely, the paper said.
As plantations expand quickly, this leads to large demand for seedlings and to premature rubber cutting - and finally lower quality. Worse, farmers now turn paddy fields in to rubber farms and some encroach on forestland.
For example, half of the paddy fields in well-irrigated Tambon Harnpho of Chaison district in Phattalung have been converted in to rubber plantations historicallyin the past years.
In Khao Poo Khao Ya National Park in the South, 122,587 rai or 28.26 percent of the park's area now house rubber trees. Plantations are also seen in the Khlong U-Tapao watershed in the South. Encroachment in first- and second-tier watersheds is believed to affect biodiversity, with a single plant. Rubber trees are less able to absorb water and this might lead to lower natural water levels and landslides.
Plantations grow larger chiefly when prices are high, with support from the government. Yet, the government has failed to adopt a long-term plan to create the industry.
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